It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
